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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán stood out as the only head of an EU nation to support Donald Trump. This backing was hardly surprising, in light of Mr Orbán's adoption of divisive ideas such as the "great replacement" theory and the crackdowns on journalistic liberties. Analysts observe that Mr Orbán practically pioneered Trump's base, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Campaign Assistance Before Hungary's Polls

In recent days, amid key votes in Hungary just six months away, Donald Trump returned some political favors. While Orbán aims for a fifth straight win leading a nation he calls an illiberal state, his Fidesz party lags in the polls. A meeting to the US capital produced more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it brought highly beneficial electoral advantages.

Special Treatment and Financial Shields

Even though before instructing EU countries on the imperative to halt all energy imports from Russia, and warning of restrictions against nations persisting to buy Russian oil, Mr Trump approved to grant a special exemption for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the American leadership also agreed to provide a fiscal buffer to Budapest if it faces any future difficulties, particularly since EU institutions continues to withhold substantial EU funds to the nation due to rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this deal seem vague. But Mr Trump has shown his willingness to support like-minded partners after the United States provided a a $20 billion loan to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. Even though the Hungarian PM did not secure a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting still turned out to be a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and Global Ramifications

Among European leaders, Trump's actions will have further underlined the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, before which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, has a comfortable lead in opinion data. European leaders are accustomed not to look for principled consistency from the US government, and have grown used to the US president’s moves to diminish the EU. However the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an deal to acquire American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to end Russian oil and gas by the year 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian crude, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the blocking vote to impede moves in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As Europe strives to create a coordinated approach for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any upcoming peace talks, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Opposition Stance

The opposition candidate has steered clear of pledging a major policy shift on Ukraine, and directed his efforts on internal matters, while stressing the necessity for Hungary to begin operating as a constructive EU member. After years of repeated disruptions, EU officials can only hold out hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, like the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His persistent opposition on Ukrainian matters risks undermining its future security.